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EARTHVOQ

[ Forecasting ]

Where the job is heading, by a method you can check

One formula, written on the page that produces the number. No index, no trend line, no model you are asked to take on faith — because a forecast you cannot explain to your surety is a forecast you cannot use.
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14 days. No card.

ForecastRiverside Commons
Actual to dateFact$173,400
Open commitmentFact+ $41,600
Remaining budgetThe assumption+ $86,200
Forecast final cost$0

Against a $284,000 budget · projected margin 26.2% against 30.4% at bid

One method, and it is written on the page

Every forecasting product has a formula. Most of them keep it in a manual. EARTHVOQ prints it above the figure, because a number whose derivation is hidden gets believed when it is right and blamed when it is wrong, and neither is useful.
The formulaPrinted in the product

forecast = actual cost to date
+ open commitment (ordered − received, live POs)
+ budget not yet spent and not yet committed

The assumption in the third term

The first two terms are facts. The third is where every construction forecast lives or dies, and EARTHVOQ names it rather than burying it.

“The rest of this job costs what the bid said it would.” That is the assumption, in those words, next to the figure. On an activity running at 78% of planned production it is optimistic and you can see that it is — which is exactly when a forecast earns its keep.

Once you have completed jobs, EARTHVOQ can also show a second figure built on how your company has historically finished the same cost codes. It is labelled a scenario, shown beside the forecast and never instead of it — the gap between the two is the information. How that works.

When you know something the numbers do not

Rain next week. A subcontractor who is going to be late. Rock nobody found in the bore logs. You can override the forecast per cost code — and the note is not optional.
OverrideEX-100 Mass excavation

Computed

$142,300

By the method above

Override

$158,000

“Rock at station 4+00 not in the bore logs. Two extra days of hammer work minimum.” — M. Ruiz, 14 Aug

The computed figure stays visible beside yours. A corrected number with no reason attached is one nobody can defend later, including whoever typed it.

Projected profit, against the profit you bid

The comparison that decides whether a forecast is worth reading.

Contract

$408,250

Forecast cost

$301,200

Projected profit

$107,050

Margin

26.2%

Bid at 30.4%

Questions worth asking about any forecast

What method does the forecast use?+

Actual cost to date, plus open commitment on issued purchase orders, plus the budget not yet spent and not yet committed. That third term assumes the rest of the job costs what the bid said it would — which is an assumption, not a projection, and EARTHVOQ prints it in words next to the figure.

Does it use earned value, CPI or SPI?+

No. Those need a length of history that a job four days in does not have, and a projection built on four days of data is a guess with a decimal point. EARTHVOQ shows one method you can check by hand.

What if I know the forecast is wrong?+

Override it per cost code — but the note is required. A corrected number with no reason attached is a number nobody can defend three months later, including the person who typed it. The computed figure stays visible beside your override.

Related EARTHVOQ capabilities

Forecast a live job and check the arithmetic yourself.

Fourteen days, no card. The method is three terms — if it does not agree with your own read of the job, you will know within a minute and so will we.
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14 days, no card. Plans from $79 a month.